Another of the crazy thought that was roaming around in the vast vacuums of space between the 2 ears of my head! An outcome of listening too keenly to a mathematical modeling class!
Dr.Walton (a famous professor in TAMU known for his skills with tensor analysis, continuum mechanics and biological pattern formations) was explaining about pattern formations and how to model them mathematically in his class. As an example, he also mentioned that populations of species can be modeled and patterns of a population spread in a region can be estimated and quantified. To prove this, he modeled the behaviour of E.Coli bacteria and ran a simulation to show how they spread about in a particular region for a given set of conditions. He further showed, that experimentally, when the same situation was replicated, the bacteria behaved exactly the same way as was predicted in the simulations. Now since it is a bacteria, and has no mind of its own, we could "control" their behaviour and migration patterns by controlling the conditions that influence their decision.
Would the same theory hold good for humans too? Can we predict human migration patterns the same way we did for a bacteria? Not withstanding the lunacity of the thought, I shot off a mail to Dr.Walton. Surprisingly, he did bother to take time off and respond to my mail. Heres a reproduction of the mails that were exchanged.
My mail to him:
Dr.Walton,
From the past few classes, where you have been teaching pattern
formations, I gain an impression that we can actually formulate
mathematical equations that can predict the migration of populations of
species across a geographical space. So, this also means, we can
"predict" human migration patterns? Why then, do the big cities get
choked up, saturated with this rush of people from the smaller
settlements?
My point is, if there are models that can be built which identify and
show a likely route that population of humans are going to take over the
future, can't the planners, use this, and try and negate the effect? Or
are the city planners already using these systems to build the cities of
future?
Kaushik
For which he said:
Kaushik,
Your impressions are quite correct. These and many other
mathematical models are being applied to modeling human migration
patterns, in general, and to the design and evolution of urban
population distribution patterns in particular.
J. Walton
:) So humans are indeed treated as herds! Imagine this. A capitalist decides to use this model to his advantage. He buys land for cheap in a god forsaken place, and then plugs in values into the model that can shoot up human migration towards this area. What would happen? Unimaginable profit margins? In short, the population is being herded around?
Now for another dimension. Imagine the government uses this model to predict and plan the population rise in a particular region. And it sees that a particular area which is not so developed now, is going to be a commercial hub in the years to come. That is if the social patterns are left to themselves. Now, if it decides to publish these results and let people know, what would happen? Wouldnt there be an exponential rise, what with everyone trying to move to the "to be" happening place? For instance, if the model predicts a linear dependance of the population rise and real estate value on a particular factor, suddenly with this announcement, wouldnt there be a quadratic or exponential dependance stepping in? In short, the very equations that were used to model a particular trend are getting altered because of the equations itself?!!!
In a quest to quantify everything known and unknown, in an attempt to take control of everything that governs our lives arent we entering into chaos? Just another scary thought. As these new revelations are made in every field of science, and with every new parameter entering into "humanly controllable" regions, isnt it possible that we are after all a part of larger schema of things already being controlled by something collosally big that is uncomprehendable by the intellectual capabilities of the human brain? And is collosal governing factor god? Or is something else? Only "time" will tell.
Dr.Walton (a famous professor in TAMU known for his skills with tensor analysis, continuum mechanics and biological pattern formations) was explaining about pattern formations and how to model them mathematically in his class. As an example, he also mentioned that populations of species can be modeled and patterns of a population spread in a region can be estimated and quantified. To prove this, he modeled the behaviour of E.Coli bacteria and ran a simulation to show how they spread about in a particular region for a given set of conditions. He further showed, that experimentally, when the same situation was replicated, the bacteria behaved exactly the same way as was predicted in the simulations. Now since it is a bacteria, and has no mind of its own, we could "control" their behaviour and migration patterns by controlling the conditions that influence their decision.
Would the same theory hold good for humans too? Can we predict human migration patterns the same way we did for a bacteria? Not withstanding the lunacity of the thought, I shot off a mail to Dr.Walton. Surprisingly, he did bother to take time off and respond to my mail. Heres a reproduction of the mails that were exchanged.
My mail to him:
Dr.Walton,
From the past few classes, where you have been teaching pattern
formations, I gain an impression that we can actually formulate
mathematical equations that can predict the migration of populations of
species across a geographical space. So, this also means, we can
"predict" human migration patterns? Why then, do the big cities get
choked up, saturated with this rush of people from the smaller
settlements?
My point is, if there are models that can be built which identify and
show a likely route that population of humans are going to take over the
future, can't the planners, use this, and try and negate the effect? Or
are the city planners already using these systems to build the cities of
future?
Kaushik
For which he said:
Kaushik,
Your impressions are quite correct. These and many other
mathematical models are being applied to modeling human migration
patterns, in general, and to the design and evolution of urban
population distribution patterns in particular.
J. Walton
:) So humans are indeed treated as herds! Imagine this. A capitalist decides to use this model to his advantage. He buys land for cheap in a god forsaken place, and then plugs in values into the model that can shoot up human migration towards this area. What would happen? Unimaginable profit margins? In short, the population is being herded around?
Now for another dimension. Imagine the government uses this model to predict and plan the population rise in a particular region. And it sees that a particular area which is not so developed now, is going to be a commercial hub in the years to come. That is if the social patterns are left to themselves. Now, if it decides to publish these results and let people know, what would happen? Wouldnt there be an exponential rise, what with everyone trying to move to the "to be" happening place? For instance, if the model predicts a linear dependance of the population rise and real estate value on a particular factor, suddenly with this announcement, wouldnt there be a quadratic or exponential dependance stepping in? In short, the very equations that were used to model a particular trend are getting altered because of the equations itself?!!!
In a quest to quantify everything known and unknown, in an attempt to take control of everything that governs our lives arent we entering into chaos? Just another scary thought. As these new revelations are made in every field of science, and with every new parameter entering into "humanly controllable" regions, isnt it possible that we are after all a part of larger schema of things already being controlled by something collosally big that is uncomprehendable by the intellectual capabilities of the human brain? And is collosal governing factor god? Or is something else? Only "time" will tell.
9 comments:
Nicely done!
For once u dint sound similar to Chetan Bhagat!!!!
anyways..me also reading a book on how and why humans behave the way they do...The Celestine Prophecy...
maybe u could check it out when u have time!
Regards
Anusha.
Hey Stud,
Enough of reading...go get a life..!
LOL...kidding...studying human behaviour drives me crazy, not to forget the fact tht I am already one half.
Cheers!
Jyothsana.
Hi Kaushik...
Yeh sab bahut bhaari hain bhai..
Just do some mastery on this topic
and tell me which area in and around mumbai is going to be the hub in next 5 years
so that i can buy my next home there........!!!!!!!!
Chronicles of a conservative ..
Sounds like chronicles of Narnia.
dear Anonymous,
certainly would do some research... :) but without knowing who is this... how do u expect me to tell u!!!
please remember to put ur name when u write a comment!
Kaushik,
Next time you are in india, and if we meet i will show your atleast five succesful realtors in hyderabad who have pulled off waht u said without even attending a class or going anywhere near a text book...
With my little experience in scientific research, I have realised that any theory, any model can be applied to any problem on hand and in few cases, results could be manipulated well enough that it suit our intuition.
Perhaps the question that needs to be asked is, How practical is it?.
As my Masters thesis was on pattern formations, I can gaurantee that the models that are used to model formations of UV's(Unmanned Vehicles), MAV's also have been used to predict migration patterns, modeling the formation flights of geese and manuevers of schools of fish!, asynchronization of electric circuits ........whatever I thought of, I realised later that it as been done.
So do I think fish, geese, humans, electric circuits and unmanned vehicles behave in a same way? A Yes and a NO. It depends on which aspect of their behavior, you want to capture. Neverthless, similarities exist in an abstract, broader sense.
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